Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Visualized

Another HUGE beat

Another quarter in the books = another great earnings report from Nvidia.

Good morning all, it’s Evan (StockMKTNewz) and Gav (WOLF_Financial) here with another special issue of Finance Visualized … In this edition, we’re covering Nvidia’s Q4 earnings.

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And with that let’s get right into the earnings:

Headline Numbers

Nvidia $NVDA reported headline numbers detailing:

  • EPS of $5.16 beating expectations of $4.64 (Beat by 11.2%)

  • Revenue of $22.1B beating expectations of $20.55B (Beat by 7.5%)

Here’s how those numbers compare to what they’ve reported every Q4 since Nvidia went public in January of 1999.

Q4 REVENUE HISTORY

Nvidia’s Q4 Revenue has grown at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 23.9% from its first Q4 as a public company.

Q4 NET INCOME HISTORY

Nvidia’s Q4 Net Income has grown at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 31.6% from its first Q4 as a public company.

Segment Results

Here’s how Nvidia’s major segments did compared to analyst expectations:

  • Data Center: Revenue of $18.4B beating expectations of $17.2B

  • Gaming: Revenue of $2.9B beating expectations of $2.7B

Nvidia is dominating the data center/AI race

Here’s how Nvidia’s other smaller segments (Professional Visualization and Automotive) did:

Income Statement Visualized

Adjusted Gross Margin: Came in at 76.7% above expectations of 75.4%

Forward Guidance

Nvidia guided to Revenue of $24B +/- 2% for next quarter above analyst expectations of $22B.

Quotes from the Earnings

What to watch going forward

China: Nvidia said its China business significantly declined during the quarter as it stopped shipping in that market. Jensen added that he expects the current quarter to be the same … but after that, hopefully, they can compete again in that market. So, now we wait until the next earnings call, not to see how this current quarter went in China but to see what they say about going forward

Competition: There was still no real competition in the AI chip space during Q4. Watch for how the ramp-up of AMD’s MI300 goes. AMD launched the AI chip in December, the last month of Q4. Now we watch how quickly it ramps up, how it fits into the marketplace, and most importantly if it starts to cause some compression in margins for Nvidia. It hasn’t happened yet but this is one to keep an eye on

Expectations: Here we are again … can Nvidia keep doing it? For the last couple of quarters, Nvidia hasn’t just beat expectations, they’ve destroyed them. For Nvidia stock to keep trading at its current level, they have to keep doing that. I wouldn’t bet against them doing the same thing in Q1 but any slight miss will likely punish the stock.

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Gav + Evan